Automakers brace for tariff shock as imports plunge by 15% in first quarter of 2025

Data for the first 3 months of the year shows a significant drop in vehicle imports from Mexico, in anticipation April’s 25% automotive tariffs 

Imports of foreign-made cars into the United States from Mexico fell significantly in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, according to new trade data analyzed by ImportGenius. 

Key takeaways from the ImportGenius data analysis: 

• Both domestic and foreign automakers scaled back on vehicle imports from Mexico in Q1 2025, with 100,250 fewer vehicles entering the United States compared to Q4 2024.
• Prices on imported vehicles rose substantially year-over-year, with 6 of 8 manufacturers charging higher prices compared to Q1 2024. 
• All automotive industry players need to be more agile in the months ahead, reassessing how they source their materials and price their products, as 25% automotive tariffs take effect in Q2 2025. 

For the first three months of this year, the eight largest automobile importers from Mexico (foreign manufacturers Honda, Mazda, Nissan and Toyota from Japan, and Kia Motors from Korea; and American manufacturers GM, Ford and Stellantis) imported 100,250 fewer cars into the United States than they did in the last three months of 2024. Notably, these import declines come before the United States imposed a 25% tariff on all imported vehicles starting on April 3. 

“The auto industry has been in a holding pattern, anticipating trade turbulence for a long time,” says ImportGenius President Christopher Schafer. “After increasing imports in the latter half of 2024, manufacturers slowed their pace to start this year as they worked to assess the impact that tariffs will have on their business.”

Vehicle imports from Mexico, Q1 2024 to Q1 2025

Foreign and domestic manufacturers

As the data shows, imports from Japanese and Korean manufacturers rose steadily throughout 2024, peaking at the end of the year before declining for the first quarter of 2025. American manufacturers’ 2024 peak came earlier in the year, though imports also declined significantly to begin 2025. And while imports are down 15% from the end of 2024 to the start of 2025, Schafer notes that they are essentially unchanged (down only 0.5%) on a year-over-year basis. “The mere prospect of tariffs is having an impact on business behaviour, but it has not significantly impacted new vehicle inventories yet. April’s tariffs could change that. There’s still a lot of uncertainty ahead.” 

The backstory: America’s on-again, off-again auto sector tariffs

For the automotive sector, whose supply chains are globally integrated, the issue of tariffs is a complex one. American, Japanese and Korean manufacturers all have assembly plants in Mexico, with component parts coming from a variety of different countries including Canada. And the imposition of those tariffs has been characterized by opaqueness and delay. 

• On February 1, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico. On February 3, President Trump paused those tariffs for 30 days. 
• On February 14, President Trump announced his intention to place unspecified tariffs on all foreign vehicles. 
• On March 4, the 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods went into effect. The next day, at the behest of US manufacturers, President Trump announced that the tariff on cars would be suspended for another month. 
• On April 3, a 25% tariff on imported vehicles came into effect. The tariff applied to all manufacturers, including US manufacturers who assembled vehicles abroad (though the tariff applies only to the foreign-made components of the finished product). 

Automaker data: imports and prices by quarter

Of the eight manufacturers reviewed in ImportGenius’ analysis, five of them — Honda, Nissan, Toyota, Kia and GM — saw their Mexican imports peak in the fourth quarter of 2024. And seven of them saw imports decline in the first quarter of 2025, with the sole exception of Mazda, which experienced a small increase. 

Vehicle imports by manufacturer 

Imports from Mexico, Q1 2024 to Q4 2025

Meanwhile, the price of imported vehicles, as listed in trade manifests analyzed by ImportGenius, has been on an upward trend for the last five quarters (though Mazda is once again a notable exception). Kia vehicles experienced the biggest price hike, increasing by 25% from Q1 2024 to stand at $19,919. Among domestic manufacturers, average prices for Ford vehicles increased by 9% to reach $27,308, while Stellantis prices increased 5% to $33,522. 

Vehicle prices by manufacturer 

Wholesale prices for imports from Mexico, Q1 2024 to Q4 2025

Only two manufacturers — Mazda (-25%) and GM (-3%) — lowered their prices in the last 15 months, while Nissan’s prices increased only marginally, by 2%. 

“Based upon the trade data, it appears that most automobile dealerships are paying higher prices for imported vehicles from Mexico than they were at this time last year,” says Schafer. “And that’s before the new 25% tariff policies came into effect. When it comes to the impact of tariffs on the auto sector, the jury is still out.” 

As trade dynamics shift, so must business strategy. Companies that rely on international suppliers — from auto parts to consumer electronics — are reassessing how they plan, price, and source. Rising costs and policy swings are forcing a new level of agility. Leaders who invest in better visibility, diversify their supplier base, and stay ahead of policy changes will be best positioned to turn uncertainty into strategic advantage.